Unemployment in the UK has unexpectedly fallen; this is attributed not to people finding jobs, but to a decrease in the number of students looking for work. In other words, unemployment rates haven’t actually decreased; rather, those who have given up hope of finding a job have stopped searching, leading to a drop in unemployment.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) announced that unemployment fell to 4.9% in the three-month period up to February, contrary to predictions that it would remain at 5.2%. The ONS actually made the correct prediction, but failed to anticipate that people would give up hope of finding work. Students giving up on job searching may have influenced unemployment rates, but it would be foolish to claim that it lowered them.
Actually, a new statistical methodology should be developed… after asking “Are you looking for work?”, another question should be asked: “Do you expect to find work?”. Statistics should conclude with three questions:
1- Are you looking for work? 2- Do you think you will find work? 3- Have you given up hope of finding work?