Israel and the USA are world powers, they have no history. They lack the experience to engage in long wars. But Iran is one of the oldest states in history. A state that has managed to survive through constant warfare. Just 25 years ago, it had the experience of a 10-year war between Iran and Iran. So what I’m saying is: Iran could engage in a long war against Israel and the USA. Even if it doesn’t win, it won’t shy away from war.
Israel and the USA, on the other hand, lack sufficient experience in warfare. They rely on their bombs. The USA hasn’t won a single war since World War II. They lost in Vietnam and Afghanistan. They will probably lose against Iran as well. Trump lives in a dream world; Israel, leaning on Trump, lives a dream together.
Meanwhile, Iran’s new religious leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed to ships. Oil prices have plummeted and are now expected to reach $200 per barrel.
The longer the war drags on, the greater the chance of Iran winning. The American people can no longer tolerate Trump’s war adventures. When the economy hits rock bottom, the first reaction will come from the American people. Israel, on the other hand, relies on its missiles and has nothing more to offer. Without the USA, Israel wouldn’t be able to participate in this war.
What should Trump do?
Trump realized that following Israel was wrong, but it’s too late. They thought they could defeat Iran within a week, but the opposite happened. Even dissident Iranians sided with the government. Because after the experiences in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Libya, they realized that the last thing the USA would bring is democracy. Trump is now looking for an honorable exit. He has begun to consider the conditions for withdrawing from Iran.
Israel, however, remains in the same place. It believes it can bring down Iran with missiles. If Netanyahu could only occupy parts of a small region like Gaza in two years, how will he cope with Iran, a country with a 6,000-year history?