Short answer: it’s possible, but right now there is no sign of a large migration wave to Europe. Most experts say it depends on how the war develops.
Current situation (as of March 2026)
-
European authorities say they have not seen any major change in migration flows yet since the war began.
-
Iran historically sends relatively few asylum seekers to Europe (about 8,000 applications in 2025, ranking only 31st among nationalities).
-
Some migration experts even argue that tight borders in the region—especially in Turkey—make a large outflow difficult right now.
Why Europe is still worried
Even though the numbers are small now, officials are concerned about future scenarios:
-
Iran has about 90 million people, so even a small percentage leaving could create a huge refugee crisis.
-
If 10% of the population were displaced, the number could rival the largest refugee movements in recent decades.
-
War in the wider region (Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan) could create chain displacement, pushing more people toward Europe.
Most likely migration path
If a large wave happened, it would probably follow the typical route:
-
Internal displacement inside Iran
-
Neighbouring countries first (especially Turkey and Iraq)
-
Only later toward Europe
This is how the Syrian Civil War refugee crisis unfolded: most refugees stayed in neighbouring countries before some moved onward to Europe.
What would trigger a big migration wave
Experts say a surge would likely require several things happening at once:
-
Long war or civil collapse
-
Major destruction of cities or infrastructure
-
Economic collapse or food shortages
-
Borders in neighbouring countries opening or becoming overwhelmed
Bottom line
-
Right now: No major migration wave to Europe.
-
Medium-term: Possible if the war escalates or lasts a long time.
-
First impact: neighbouring countries, not Europe.