Short answer: A war involving Iran would likely increase migration overall, though how much reaches Europe or the UK is uncertain.
Here’s why:
1. Wars almost always increase migration
Armed conflicts typically force people to flee because of:
Bombing and fighting
Economic collapse
Food and energy shortages
Fear and political repression
For example, the current conflict has already displaced about 3.2 million people inside Iran according to the UN.
2. Experts warn it could create a major refugee crisis
Some European analysts say the numbers could become very large if the war escalates.
Iran has about 90 million people.
If 10% fled, that would be around 9 million people, comparable to the biggest refugee crises in recent decades.
That doesn’t mean all would go to Europe, but it shows the potential scale.
3. Most migrants would probably stay near Iran
Historically, most refugees go to neighboring countries first, not Europe.
Possible destinations:
Turkey
Iraq
Pakistan
Gulf countries
Only a smaller proportion typically attempt the longer route to Europe.
For example, at the moment only around 1,300 people per day are crossing into Turkey, far below a large exodus.
4. Right now there is no big surge to Europe
European officials say that so far there has not been a major increase in asylum seekers yet.
But governments are preparing for the possibility if the conflict gets worse.
✅ Overall:
Short term: migration may rise slightly but mostly within the region.
If the war escalates or lasts years: migration to Europe and the UK would likely increase significantly.