May 7th is an important day. Local elections are taking place, and polls show ReformUK leading. Looking at the advertisements, especially in London, ReformUK is the only favorite party. All local newspapers feature their ads, while the ruling Labour and Conservative parties are nowhere to be seen. It seems both parties have no expectations other than losing the election. Labour, in particular, and its leader, Starmer, seem to have resigned themselves to defeat. There is no sign of the party’s presence at the local level.
WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE POLL RESULTS?
The poll results will either solidify Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s position within Labour or force him to resign due to increasing opposition. It seems he won’t easily relinquish his post, as a significant number of his appointed ministers and MPs still support him, but how many ministers and MPs will stand behind Starmer after a heavily lost election remains to be seen.
BADENOCH’S SITUATION
Conservative Party leader Badenoch, while appearing more successful due to his active and charismatic nature compared to other conservative leaders, could see his position shaken by a defeat in the elections.
THE LIBERAL PARTY’S SITUATION
The Liberal Party doesn’t seem likely to be as successful in the elections as before, as the party doesn’t have a significant influence on the public. ReformUK has considerable credibility, particularly on the immigration issue, and millions of people who don’t share ReformUK’s views will vote for this party solely because of immigration.
WILL LOCAL ELECTIONS AFFECT GENERAL ELECTIONS?
Yes! They could particularly shake the positions of leaders. Keir Starmer might remain in office, but he needs to perform even better than he did after the Mandelson case.